Following a disappointing 1-0 loss to 10-player Nigeria, Zambia’s chances of qualifying for the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) 2026 knockout stage were dealt a major blow. The Copper Queens might still be knocked out even if they get a win against Malawi in their final Group C match.
Zambia opened their WAFCON 2026 campaign with a convincing 6-0 win against Egypt at the Olympic stadium last Tuesday. With such a win, one would assume that the Copper Queens are in a position of comfort and their goal difference would come to their aid when need arises. However, that wouldn’t be entirely the case.
With 3-2 and 3-1 victories over Nigeria and Egypt, respectively, Malawi top the group with six points, scoring six goals, conceding three and having a goal difference of +3. Nigeria have three points, three goals scored, three goals conceded and a goal difference of 0.
Zambia, on the other hand, are at three points, six goals scored, one goal let in and a goal difference of +5 while Egypt occupy bottom spot and are already out with no points after netting only one goal and shipping nine.
| TEAM | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
| MALAWI | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| NIGERIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| ZAMBIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| EGYPT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
Why a Zambia win might not be enough?
Why then is Zambia in panic mode despite having the best goal difference?
According to CAF regulations: “At the end of the group stage, the top two teams in each pool will qualify for the knockout stage, which includes the Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, Third-Place Play-Off, Final and the FIFA Women’s World Cup Brazil 2027 Qualifying Play-Offs.”
In case of equality between teams at the end of the group matches, the teams will be ranked according to the following criteria in the order listed below:
- Points won in the match between the teams concerned
- Goal difference in the match between the teams concerned
- Goals scored in the match between the teams concerned
- Overall goal difference in all group matches
- Overall goals scored in all group matches
So, if Zambia does manage to secure a win against Malawi, both teams would finish on six points, and the Copper Queens would have the upper hand in that head-to-head contest.
However, Nigeria could also beat Egypt, resulting in a three-way tie on six points, where Malawi beat Nigeria, Nigeria beat Zambia, and Zambia beat Malawi.
If such a thing were to happen, CAF would employ a ‘mini league’ system, where a league table is created involving matches between the tied teams while ignoring results obtained against the bottom team, which would be Egypt in that case. Zambia’s 6-0 win, Malawi’s 3-1 triumph and whatever victory Nigeria would secure against Egypt would not count towards the table.
Current standings of that hypothetical ‘mini league’ table:
| TEAM | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
| MALAWI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| NIGERIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| ZAMBIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
There, goal difference (GD) would come first, and if the tie persists, goals scored would be applied.
Nigeria, who have already played against the two other teams, would be unable to improve their GD of zero or their goal tally of three. Zambia and Malawi would decide the outcome of the group.
If Zambia does beat Malawi by a one-goal margin, the three teams would have a GD of 0. With a 1-0 win, however, the Copper Queens, scoring one goal, would trail Nigeria and Malawi, both on three goals. At 2-1, two goals scored for Zambia would still be less than Malawi’s four and Nigeria’s three.
At 3-2, Malawi tops the standings with five goals, while Nigeria and Zambia would tie at three goals. The Super Falcons would get the nod, however, because they beat the Copper Queens on matchday two.
If Zambia claim a 4-3 victory over Malawi, the Southern African duo would progress at Nigeria’s expense, because of the four goals and six goals scored, respectively. Additionally, 5-4, 6-5 wins and so on by Zambia on the final day would have a similar outcome.
A victory for Zambia by a multiple goal margin would secure qualification for the Copper Queens. At 2-0, Zambia’s GD would move from -1 to 1, while Malawi’s drops from 1 to -1. Nigeria, with a GD of 0, finish as runners-up to Zambia. The same would apply with 3-1, 3-0, 4-0, 5-1 triumphs and so on.
It is worth noting that while overall GD and goals scored in the group matches, including those against Egypt, would come next after the trio remains tied in the ‘mini league’, such a scenario will not occur.
Can Zambia afford to lose or draw against Malawi?
Can Zambia qualify even with a low-scoring narrow win (e.g. 1-0), a draw or a defeat? Well, that will depend on what happens in the Nigeria and Egypt match.
If Zambia lose to Malawi, they will be knocked out. This is because even if Nigeria fall to Egypt and remain level with Zambia on three points, the West Africans have the better head-to-head record at the WAFCON 2026.
A draw for the Copper Queens in their final group match would only get them through if Nigeria lose to Egypt. Likewise, a low-scoring narrow win (i,e. 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2) sends Zambia to the quarterfinals only if Nigeria draw with Egypt.
With Nigeria odds-on to beat Egypt on matchday three, Zambia need to beat Malawi convincingly, atleast 2-0, to be certain of making it to the knockout stage and remain in contention for the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup spots.
The Southern African derby between Zambia and Malawi will be staged at the Al Madina on August 5 at 22:00hrs CAT. It will be played at the same time as Nigeria’s match with Egypt at the Olympic Stadium.
