Zambia’s 2 – 0 loss to Morocco may have realistically knocked Chipolopolo out of the race to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but a mathematical chance has emerged following Niger’s 1 – 0 win over Tanzania in Group E.
Africa’s 2026 World Cup representatives will be decided based on teams that will finish top in each of the nine groups. However, there is one more slot that can be earned via a playoff route.
The four best second-placed teams will be drawn into a semi-final clash, and the winner of the final will proceed to represent Africa in an inter–continental play-off that will see six teams battle it out for two places at the World Cup.
Until Monday, Zambia had no mathematical chance to finish second in Group E following their loss to Morocco, but Tanzania’s defeat has given them a lifeline.
With two games to play, Chipolopolo could finish with 12 points and topple Tanzania, who are currently second with 10 points. Niger is third with nine points.
How can Zambia make it into the playoffs?
Because Eritrea withdrew, Group E has only five teams, meaning each side will play eight matches instead of ten. To ensure fairness when comparing the nine group runners-up, CAF will rank Group E’s second-placed team on a points-per-game basis rather than total points.
This means if Zambia finishes with 12 points from 8 games, that equals 1.5 points per game, the same value as a team earning 15 points from 10 games elsewhere. Goal difference and goals scored will also be averaged per match to break ties, ensuring Zambia and other Group E teams are judged on equal footing.
Will that happen? Time will team.
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