Whether or not the Zambian men’s national team still has any real chance of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup remains a burning question among the Zambian faithful. The Chipolopolo Boys’ qualification campaign for the world’s biggest sporting event has been something of a rollercoaster.
Zambia kicked off their qualifiers in 2023 with a commanding 4-2 victory over Congo Brazzaville in Ndola. The famed attacking trident of Patson Daka, Fashion Sakala, and Lameck Banda all found the back of the net.
The Copper Bullets were then met with a roadblock a few days later, falling 2-1 to Niger at the Grande Stade de Marrakech in Morocco. A year later, the Chipolopolo Boys visited the North African country again, facing Morocco, who handed them a 2-1 defeat.
In a must-win fixture against Tanzania, with their fans rallying behind them, Zambia disappointed again, settling for a 1-0 loss against the Taifa Stars. However, a glimmer of hope has emerged for the Copper Bullets, who were recently awarded three points by FIFA for an unplayed fixture against Congo Brazzaville.
Let’s spare you the trouble of having to pull out your calculators to work out Zambia’s chances of making it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as we delve into the permutations.
How can one qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
In Africa, nine teams will be guaranteed spots at the quadrennial showpiece, while another team will have to battle it out in the Inter-Confederation playoffs. These nine teams are the winners of the nine qualifying groups. Then, the four best runners-up from those groups will compete to determine Africa’s sole representative in the Inter-Confederation playoffs.
Hence, the least Zambia could do is finish second in Group E, where they compete against Morocco, Tanzania, Niger, and Congo Brazzaville. Of course, Eritrea, the group’s sixth member, withdrew prior to the tournament.
What are the current standings in Group E?
Morocco tops the group with 15 points from five matches, trailed by Tanzania, who have managed nine points from five games. In third place is Zambia on six points after five fixtures. From four matches, Niger also has six points but with fewer goals scored than Zambia. And in rock bottom is Congo Brazzaville with no points won after the first five fixtures. The Diables Rouges have already been eliminated from the qualifier
| Group E | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 | |
| 2 |  | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| 3 |  | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| 4 |  | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 5 |  | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 | |
| 6 |  | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Can Zambia still top Group E?
Mathematically, a scenario in which the Chipolopolo Boys finish top of Group E still exists. If Zambia wins all their remaining group matches, Morocco loses three games in a row, and Tanzania and Niger drop some points, the Copper Bullets can win the group. They would be equal on points (15) with the Atlas Lions but would require a better goal difference. That permutation, however, is quite unrealistic but not impossible.
Is Zambia’s qualification still in their own hands?
Albeit Tanzania and Niger picking up positive results in other matches, Zambia will finish second in their group if they win their remaining matches with better scorelines. This means Zambian fans will not have to watch their opponents’ fixtures hoping they drop points, as long as the Chipolopolo Boys win their own matches convincingly. The only thing they will have to worry about from there is what happens in other groups.
What will get Zambia automatically eliminated?
Should the Copper Bullets lose two of their remaining three matches, their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign is over.
What happens if Zambia loses their next match against Morocco?
Zambia will host Morocco at the Levy Mwanawasa Stadium in Ndola on September 8 in what will be the first match of their last three qualification matches. Given that Tanzania and Niger play Congo and Morocco, respectively, three days prior, Zambia may be heading into the match against Morocco needing a win. Therefore, a defeat against Morocco might put the Copper Bullets on the cusp of elimination. Zambian fans will hope Tanzania and Niger drop.
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